Weltschau

“It has been common knowledge that Turkish youth have been going to Russia for the past three decades. Some even started their education careers. He is the most interesting of them all. He loves Ukraine and lives there. This residence resulted in two books” (Berktay, 2023; 17). Turkish historian and former director of the Topkapı Museum, Prof. Dr. İlber Ortaylı, describes journalist Deniz Berktay, the author of the book “Ukraine: The World’s Political Fault Line”, with these words in the book. The book seeks answers to questions such as “who are the Ukrainians?” and “why did Russian President V. Putin invade Ukraine?”. In line with the latter, in his book, Berktay draws attention to two aspects of the Ukraine-Russia war. This war involves Moscow’s violation of the territorial integrity of Kiev while simultaneously constituting a Russia-West clash. The book also elucidates the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine war, making it less accessible to comprehend. “Since Ukrainians come from the same roots as Russians, it is a little bit difficult for us to understand the conflict between Russia and Ukraine (for instance, it bears no resemblance whatsoever to the Turkish-Greek conflict due to the fact that the Greeks and Turks are two entirely distinct nations)” (Berktay, 2023; 21). Berktay, who is a columnist at Cumhuriyet Newspaper and who is also a permanent member of the Turkey-Ukraine Industrialists and Businesspeople Association, addressed my inquiries about Russian President V. Putin’s decision to escalate assaults against Ukraine and the invasion’s impact on the demographic infrastructure.

ÖZELGÜN: How do you evaluate Putin’s decision to intensify attacks against Ukraine?

BERKTAY: As we know, Ukraine had launched a counter offensive by June 2023. They were aiming at making a breakthrough towards the Azov Sea coast, thus cutting the corridor that connects Russia with Crimea. Nevertheless, they could not get a significant result during this counter offensive. One of the few gains on the Ukrainian forces is the bridgeheads that they captured on the left bank of the river Dnipro is Kherson province. However, in addition to the trenches prepared by the Russians, the rains of autumn and the snow and cold weather of the winter make it almost impossible for the Ukrainian forces to advance further. The Ukrainians were expecting to receive new weapons in order to launch a greater spring offensive in 2024. At this point, Russians are trying to get back their positions, benefitting from that period. In addition, Putin wishes to benefit from the situation, when the future of the West is under question, to subjugate Ukraine. In addition, he may be planning a breakthrough in the east, especially in Kharkiv province.

ÖZELGÜN: In your opinion, how close are we to a peace that respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine in these days when international aid to Ukraine is decreasing and there is a possibility that the Republicans in America will emerge victorious in the upcoming elections?

BERKTAY: Such a chance is getting less and less, since Russia has already annexed four provinces of Ukraine in addition to the Crimean Peninsula. Thus, Putin cannot step back on this issue, since any concession on this issue will be perceived as “treason” in Russia. In addition, the Crimea peninsula has great significance for geopolitics. It controls the whole Black Sea. For this reason, the Russians will do everything not to step back from Crimea. I think the most realistic scenario under such circumstances will be a peace project, which will resemble more of an armistice than a real peace. 

ÖZELGÜN: How does Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian cities affect the demographic infrastructure of the occupied Ukrainian cities?

BERKTAY: Those cities left most of their pre-war population, not only because the inhabitants do not wish to live under Russian rule (in the occupied territory, pro-Russian sentiments were higher than in the other parts of Ukraine), but also because of devastating battles that take place before the Russians capture those settlements.