“Defensive weapons inevitably lead to a war of attrition”
In 2023, the Turkish Academy of Sciences deemed him worthy of the Halil İnancık Special Award for his work titled “Gerays and Ottomans: The Story of the Crimean Khanate in the Ottoman Empire”. The book provides an account of the fundamental attributes of the Geray dynasty, their societal functions within the Ottoman Empire, and their residential locations (Ötüken.com). However, historian Hakan Kırımlı’s expertise and understanding of Crimea and Ukraine extend beyond historical matters; he has also produced scholarly works on contemporary issues. “The famine of 1921-22 in the Crimea and the Volga Basin and the relief from Turkey” and “Diplomatic relations between the Ottoman Empire and the Ukrainian Democratic Republic, 1918-21” are just two of them. I asked Kırımlı, who also speaks Crimean Tatar and Ukrainian, my questions about the security agreement signed between Kiev and London and Sweden’s high-level war warning. Excerpts.
ÖZELGÜN: According to the BBC, PM R. Sunak has vowed that Ukraine “will never be alone”. To what extent could the security agreement between the United Kingdom and Ukraine influence the course of the war?
KIRIMLI: The support of the West against the aggression of Russia is absolutely vital. Especially the backing of the US, Britain, and Germany are the most critical factors. Both President J. Biden, Sunak, and even the German side vow to support Ukraine almost to whatever it takes and how long it takes. Of course, we don’t know how these pledges will be realised on the field. One thing is clear: Putin hopes that Western support for Ukraine will fade away sooner or later, and that’s why he wants to turn the war into a war of attrition against Ukraine. He also hopes that somebody like D. Trump will be victorious soon in the US, which would be almost fatal to Ukraine. I cannot say that the West’s support for Ukraine will be well in accordance with the pledges that have been made so far. But what is clear is that these pledges are vital. If these pledges to support Ukraine are not realised, it would be catastrophic for Europe and the world itself.
ÖZELGÜN: Thus far, predominantly, the Western countries have provided Kiev with defensive armaments…
KIRIMLI: Ukraine needs to get back what had been occupied by Russia, the left bank of Dnieper, and, extremely importantly, Crimea. Well, this could be realized only through offensive weapons. But so far, for the most part, the West has supplied defensive weapons to Ukraine. The United States particularly literally dragged its feet to provide them “not to provoke Russia”. But this would lead to a war of attrition, and it is exactly what Putin hopes for. He hopes that, in such a war of attrition, Western support for Ukraine will simply fade away. Defensive weapons inevitably lead to a war of attrition.
ÖZELGÜN: According to Freedom, “Moldova prepares for Russian interference in spring”.
KIRIMLI: For Putin, first and foremost, there is no doubt whatsoever that whatever had been part of the Soviet Union should be returned to the orbit of Russia, that is, within the borders of Russia, as the first step. But under these circumstances, I don’t think he would like to escalate the war to include other countries. Of course, he would have this in mind. There’s no doubt he has other countries in mind. But such an escalation would once again attract attention to Ukraine. This is exactly what Putin doesn’t want. This whole thing would turn into the so-called frozen conflict. This would be forgotten, and he would keep what he had occupied in Ukraine. So he hopes that the rest of the world will force Ukraine to go to the peace table at the price of leaving what had been occupied by Russia, including Crimea, to Russia. A timeless attack on Moldova or any other country would be clearly a stupid step on the part of Putin. However, Putin has a very long list of interferences virtually everywhere. This can be everywhere on the global scale, not only within the ex-Soviet sphere but also everywhere in Europe, even in the US. Is it to be remembered from the election of Trump?
ÖZELGÜN: According to Swedish Civil Defence Minister C.O. Bohlin, “there could be war in Sweden”… (Euractiv, 10 January 2024)
KIRIMLI: They should be alert. After all, the war going on is by no means an isolated conflict between two distant countries. The outcome of the war would absolutely affect everything in the related countries, including Turkey. As for the Swedish context, this doesn’t mean that it will turn into a kind of imminent war. No, Putin must be absolutely out of his mind to attack Sweden or so. Under the circumstances, this will lead to some kind of third-world war. This will be an exaggeration under the circumstances at this very moment.
ÖZELGÜN: Do you believe that we are nearing a peace agreement?
KIRIMLI: Regarding the war against Ukraine, there is one thing that is absolutely critical, and it shouldn’t be borne out of mind. Ukraine must not be forced to sign a peace treaty with Russia at the price of losing the left bank territories of Ukraine and, most importantly, Crimea to Russia, saying that the war has lasted too long and let’s accept that Crimea and other territories belong to Russia and sign a peace. This would be the most deadly and unacceptable solution to end this war. This will by no means end Putin’s ambitions towards the rest of Ukraine. It will be fatal not only for Ukraine but for the West too. This will give Putin the breathing space he has been dreaming of for a long time. Secondly, leaving Crimea to Putin would leave the Black Sea at the mercy of Russia, and this would be deadly for Turkey too. Thirdly, leaving Crimea to Russia under any formulation, which would de facto mean leaving Crimea to Russia, would mean leaving the native people of Crimea, the Crimean Tatars, at the non-existing mercy of Putin. This would be the end of the Crimean Tatar nation. God forbid it. So there is no way the native people of Crimea, who are not Russians but Crimean Tatars, would never, under any form or disguise, accept any kind of so-called peace or truce that would leave Crimea under Russian rule.
References
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67954152
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67935464
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67949900
https://www.otuken.com.tr/geraylar-ve-osmanlilar
Swedish war warnings mocked in Moscow By Charles Szumski | Euractiv.com
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