Weltschau

The passage of two years will shortly mark the anniversary of Russia’s last attack on Ukraine. The hawkish Russian oligarchy, under the leadership of Putin, was spoiled by the West’s dormant, day-to-day behaviour, which it had maintained for the better part of a quarter century, and resolved to act before it was too late and missed the opportunity. The reasons behind this decision were: a) Putin’s passion to write his ever-deepening hysterical loneliness and megalomania into history, like Peter the Great or Catherine the Great, whom he secretly and openly admired, in golden letters, b) disrupting the stability of various countries by supporting the extreme left or right in order to tear countries apart, c) with the help of Trump, to mentally present Russia as a friend and Ukraine as an enemy to the European public, who are in trouble by recruiting important figures from the political elite by using money or lust, d) the evaluation that America, where the newly elected democratic President Biden is still a novice in office, cannot object to the conquest of Ukraine.

Undoubtedly, his conviction that Ukraine, which he underestimated because he thought it would be defeated very easily and which made extensive concessions to Russia during the Yanukovych era, had made negligible advancements, also played a provocative role in this. However, it was the physical devastation of the Ukrainian army’s combat capabilities in the last period that allowed Russia, which was alarmed by the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine in 2014, to run riot, not be satisfied with Crimea, which it expressly grabbed like a vicious and scoundrel thief, and also to attack Donbas. Poroshenko, who was elected president in the election and is himself an oligarch, invested heavily in the armed forces and significantly fortified the domestic front. He successfully thwarted the Russians who came to the rescue of pro-Russian irregular troops controlled by Russian irregular military commanders who were inadequate in Donbas and had the bravery to stand up and tear up the quasi-settlement in the face of Putin, who did not even like and neglected the so-called Minsk solutions imposed on Kiev by the West under the leadership of Paris and Berlin in 2015, although his political prowess lagged behind.

Front lines and borders subsequently became monotonous as a result of an extended stalemate. As if Crimea were to perpetually remain a province of Russia, Moscow made prestigious and costly economic investments, including the Kerch bridge, in order to resolve logistical issues. Conversely, Russia strengthened its strategic positioning and executed a repressive population policy in an effort to eradicate undesirable elements, including the incorrigible Ukrainians and the Crimean Tatars, the original indigenous people of the peninsula. However, the outcome in Donbas, which Putin had partially occupied, did not meet his expectations. No matter what he did, he could not fully develop this place. It was imperative to undertake something bigger. His Excellency Putin was not young enough to wait for a new opportunity to arise, so he had to take immediate action. He immediately set to work. To begin with, he fabricated a theory that distorts history by ignoring the Ukrainian people. Then, by uncovering Nazis in Ukraine who did not exist, he distorted the current reality and used NATO expansion as a pretext for his preoccupation with the matter, which he had refrained from discussing for years. Recently, the European Union, which was said to have experienced the brain death of NATO and who received a blow with Brexit, was “discussing the gender of angels” within itself, while America was struggling in the greater Middle East quagmire and did not want any extra problems in Europe for fear of the giant in the Far East.

Since the intelligence presented to him was that Ukraine would be destroyed very easily, Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine with peace of mind, within a strategy that, from a military standpoint, was imperfect. Kyiv would fall soon, President V. Zelensky would look for a place to escape, and Kyiv would go down on its knees and accept all of Moscow’s conditions. A little stone upset a large cart, and these expectations were not realised. Ukraine did not submit, and the West did not stay quiet on this occasion. Putin changed tactics. Despite persistently launching powerful missile attacks on cities and infrastructure from a remote location, Putin withdrew from the northern region and redirected his forces to the south to strengthen the Donbas area and establish a connection with Crimea. Unfortunately, by capitalising on a potential betrayal, he has temporarily benefited from this decision. Despite the Ukrainian army’s counterattack successfully repelling the large bear, its efforts were insufficient to expel it.

Russia stands by as its well-trained workforce departs the country while attempting to conceal its desperation in the face of economic sanctions and a protracted war that removes it from civilization through expanding and globalising propaganda activities. What Putin sends to die in the war are the convicts it recruits from jails and the national and periphery impoverished individuals who are in need of one cent.

Ukraine has proven to both friends and adversaries on the battlefield that it is capable of producing results with modern ammunition and weapons when provided with them. Russia maintains its stance that it will employ its nuclear capabilities whenever it is in trouble. Yes, today Russia is governed by a lunatic who would rather risk suicide than relinquish control of Sevastopol. However, this mindset poses a security risk not just for the global community but also for Russia per se. All sensible people in Russia who have a stake, whether economic, political, intellectual, or ordinary, should take a bite of the reality sandwich. However, it is the responsibility of every individual in society to halt the undiscriminating violation of principles like freedom and independence around the globe by the arrivistes that emerge at steady intervals. Hence, it is imperative to promptly furnish Ukraine with a comprehensive array of weaponry, munitions, and equipment, encompassing long-range armaments and air defence systems, of a magnitude and scope that will compel the aggressor to give up.

Russia, the only empire to have withstood the First and Second World Wars with minor damage, should now be relegated to historical obscurity. This time, do not allow it to get away with it.

Bülent Tanatar

Turkish citizen of Crimean Tatar origin. He studied economics. Retired from the private sector. One of the editors of Emel magazine.