American conservative political commentator and writer Tucker Carlson’s interview with President V. Putin garnered international attention. What’s more, Carlson’s accusations against English-speaking news outlets went so far as to characterise them as “corrupt” and “lying” in front of their audience.* A Twitter poll, organised by the Election Post, an American website delivering global news coverage, elicited 234 responses from respondents regarding whether Carlson’s interview with Putin constituted a journalistic triumph or a triumph for President Putin’s propaganda. 73.5 percent perceived it as a triumph of propaganda, while 26.5 percent regarded it as a success of journalism. In order to gain a deeper comprehension of the implications of these percentages, I inquired with Election Post’s editor-in-chief, Mustafa Tanyeri, about the potential consequences of a prospective triumph by D. Trump in the American elections on the United States’ (US) Ukraine policy, as well as the arrest of I. Girkin, who played a significant part in the invasion of Crimea.
ÖZELGÜN: What precise and practical effects may a prospective Republican election victory in the USA have on the existing American military strategy in the context of the war?
TANYERİ: Let me provide some preliminary explanations before addressing the issues. The Democratic Biden administration hasn’t been decisive and strong against Russia’s pre-war preparations that began in the last quarter of 2021, almost four months before the attack on Ukraine. Particularly, I would like to highlight President Biden’s rhetoric when he officially requested Russian President Putin not to initiate a war during that pre-war period. (I use the term “war,” but Mr. Putin avoids it, consistently using the term “special operation,” which masks his true intentions.) Therefore, we must not overlook the role of the Biden administration in possibly emboldening Putin to attack Ukraine. President Biden assessed the risks and concluded that there wouldn’t be a serious reaction from the US presidential administration and European leaders to deter him. This fact should not be forgotten as we analyze the ongoing situation between Russia and Ukraine. So, what would happen if a Republican administration were to take control of the White House after the presidential election on November 5th? If Donald J. Trump were to become the next president, there would likely be some minor changes in US policy regarding the situation in Ukraine. (Nikki Haley appears to have little chance of being nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, so I won’t speculate about her potential presidency or her general policy.) During his first term, from 2016 to 2020, the US did not initiate any new military operations; instead, Trump aimed to bring some US troops back home and seriously questioned NATO’s role. He also questioned US-European Union (EU) relations and expressed reservations about ongoing US policies with Europe over the past two decades. However, Trump also understands that compromising with Russia’s aggressive military actions would create further and more dangerous problems for Europe, NATO, and even the USA. It is evident that President Putin harbors the ambition to resurrect the Russian Empire using political tactics and military force. Regardless of which party controls the White House, Democratic or Republican, any US administration already has well-established institutions that provide extensive historical and international studies to guide its foreign policies. The biggest threat to Ukraine would be a reduction in the necessary defense budget or pressure to sign an unwanted peace agreement. Nevertheless, I don’t believe that a Republican government would allow Russia to perceive a peace agreement as a victory.
ÖZELGÜN: With respect to relations with Europe…
TANYERİ: I believe that the US-UK relationship will remain strong under a Republican government. However, US-EU relations may not be as smooth as with the UK. The relationship between the US and France has not been particularly positive for almost a decade, spanning the Obama, Trump, and even the current Biden administrations. However, aside from France, I do not see any significant threats to US-EU relations or NATO under a Republican government. NATO’s position has been strengthened, especially in the last three years, with territorial expansion including new members such as Finland and Sweden. This is an irreversible trend; therefore, a Republican president cannot reverse this trajectory.
ÖZELGÜN: In a general sense…
TANYERİ: Regardless of which party controls the White House after the next election, Ukraine’s situation—marked by ongoing war, social upheaval, and economic challenges—will likely not improve. Ukrainian forces are combating the world’s second-largest army, placing a tremendous burden on the country and its people. While the Western world has provided financial and military assistance to Ukraine, there may be a lack of understanding of Ukraine’s specific needs. Furthermore, some EU countries, such as Italy and Hungary, question the EU’s general policy regarding Ukraine. If more countries join this dissent, the situation in Ukraine could worsen significantly in the near future.
ÖZELGÜN: How do you evaluate the arrest of I. Girkin?
TANYERİ: Girkin, also known by his surname Strelkov, is a prominent war-blogger and Putin enthusiast who was arrested in July 2023 for criticizing Putin and his policies regarding the war in Ukraine. As we all know, he played crucial roles in the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the separation of Donetsk. Being a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer and military commander, he should have been aware of who Putin truly is, or rather, what kind of dictator he is. No dictator appreciates criticism, and Putin is no exception. However, could this arrest have any significant impact in Russia? Certainly not. Just consider what happened after Putin ordered the killing of Y. Prigozhin, Wagner chief, and the FSB shot down his plane—almost nothing; just a few tears and flowers in his memory. Likewise, nobody will shed tears after Girkin spends four years in jail, except perhaps his wife.
ÖZELGÜN: What is your assessment of B. Nadezhdin’s claim, as a potential competitor of Putin in the elections, that he will bring an end to the war on the very first day of his presidency? Are Russia’s expansionist policies in the current socio-political framework of Russia inherent or subject to change with each new president?
TANYERİ: Let me emphasize a stark reality about Russia: Nobody can replace Putin through elections unless he passes away for any reason. It’s simply not feasible. Under the Putin administration (and even before him), Russia cannot be considered a country where democratic processes determine its leadership. The safest course of action in Russia is to adhere to its dictatorial rules and avoid crossing paths with the oligarchs. While B. Nadezhdin presents reasonable rhetoric and aims to improve Russia’s condition, unfortunately, he will never garner enough public support to be elected as the next president. This is because the social and institutional structure of Russia stifles democratic discourse, civil rights movements, and the development of political opposition. The profound fear of Soviet oppression has deeply ingrained itself in the genetic makeup of the populace, discouraging many from attempting to challenge the status quo. Russia remains a personal fiefdom of Putin and his inner circle until his demise. Therefore, it is futile to speculate about Nadezhdin’s potential presidential policies and the post-Putin era. The only viable means to constrain Putin’s actions lie in stronger and more decisive support from the Western world and providing Ukraine with advanced technological and sophisticated military equipment. Additionally, executing robust propaganda campaigns against Russia and Putin, while also imposing restrictions on the social and economic activities of Russian individuals worldwide, could exert significant pressure on Putin, originating from his own people. This approach would be far more pragmatic than placing hope in Nadezhdin’s hypothetical presidency.
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