Weltschau

On March 22nd, there were two main public assessments regarding who planned the terrorist attack in Moscow and its intended target. From a Western perspective, security analysts argue that this attack will lead Putin to take tougher steps against Ukraine and that it was a Kremlin conspiracy. The Russian side, on the other hand, argues that this terrorist attack was planned by Ukrainian intelligence with the facilitating role of Western intelligence agencies. It can be argued that the analysis from the Western perspective does not reflect reality and that no government would carry out actions that would call its authority into question. In this context, the Russian government’s account of this attack is more likely to be accurate.

Considering that the CIA has been training and equipping Ukrainian military intelligence since 2014, it can be said that if Ukrainian military intelligence was involved in this terrorist attack, it is highly unlikely that this terrorist attack could have taken place without the knowledge and approval of the CIA. It is known that there are militants of Central Asian origin with different ideological motivations fighting against the Russians in Ukraine. In this respect, it can be stated that the CIA and Ukrainian military intelligence would have no difficulty in facilitating and directing such a terrorist attack. Considering the fact that the CIA used jihadist elements against the Soviets in Afghanistan, it can be said that the CIA has experience in directing and using terrorist organizations with jihadist motivation.

It is an open secret known to anyone who follows the politics of the region that since the Syrian civil war began, the CIA and Western intelligence agencies have turned Syria into a dumping ground for foreign fighters. It is known that Georgian-born Shishkhani and Tajik Gulmurad Khalimov, who were once ISIS emirs, were mercenaries trained by US Special Forces. It is well known how jihadists were recruited from Central Asia and the Russian periphery and how this was organized by Western intelligence services in order for the Khorasan branch of ISIS to flourish and strengthen in Syria and Iraq.

Russia kept quiet about these activities, thinking that it was getting rid of the radicals on its territory and wanted to take the war beyond its own territory and destroy these militants en masse in Syria. However, having gained combat experience in Syria and Iraq, the terrorists have now become Russia’s weakest underbelly. So, what could have been aimed at with this terrorist attack? There are two possible explanations for this question. The first is to force Putin to compromise by bringing the war inside Russia. The second is the possibility that a wave of terrorism and economic crisis could be used to incite Russian society to revolt and thus remove Putin from power.

A Scenario to Force Putin to Compromise

The Americans announced that they had shared intelligence with the Russian government that the Khorosan branch of ISIS would carry out attacks in Russia. However, the Russian security apparatus did not heed this warning. The Russian government, on the other hand, stated that the intelligence shared was not enough to take precautions. Tactical intelligence sharing to prevent a terrorist attack must include information on when, where, how, and by whom. In this context, it is important to ask why the CIA did not share with the Russian government the exact information that would have prevented the attack. There could be two explanations for this. First, the CIA may have withheld information to protect its agents in the terrorist cell or in the decision-making mechanism that designed the terrorist attack. The second explanation is that the CIA wanted to send a message to the Russian government that it has influence over the Khorasan branch of ISIS. Either way, it is highly probable that Western intelligence agencies are sending the message that if the invasion of Ukraine is not stopped, the war will be carried into Russia by religiously motivated terrorist organizations. If Putin is forced to compromise, there is a strong possibility that the Khorasan branch of ISIS will continue its terrorist attacks against Russian territory. Western intelligence agencies may also be planning to remove Putin from power with a wave of systematic terrorism if he does not back down on Ukraine.

Scenario to Remove Putin from Power

Before the invasion of Ukraine began, Western intelligence agencies issued public intelligence reports predicting that Russia would launch the invasion. In intelligence analysis, information on an enemy’s capabilities can be gathered from multiple sources. However, it can be said that information about the enemy’s intentions can be obtained mostly through human intelligence. By sharing intelligence on Putin’s intentions in Ukraine, Western intelligence agencies paved the way for European unity and forced Putin to stop. Despite all the odds, Putin defiantly launched the invasion. The accurate prediction of Putin’s intentions shows that Western intelligence services have well-placed assets within the Kremlin and the Russian intelligence and security bureaucracy. Having infiltrated the Russian state system to this extent, the Western intelligence services have meticulously calculated the steps they will take after the invasion. The post-occupation purges of many executives working in the 5th Department of the FSB, which was tasked with monitoring Ukraine, can be read as evidence of the penetration. 

It is not possible to determine the extent to which Western intelligence organizations have penetrated the Russian state system, but it can be argued that the CIA’s campaign to appeal to patriotic Russians and ask them to cooperate was designed to create paranoia in the Russian intelligence apparatus. When an intelligence apparatus is plunged into paranoia, it can be argued that this will trigger major purges. J. J. Angelton, who ran CIA counterintelligence, was unable to carry out any activities against the Soviets for almost his entire tenure because of paranoia about Russian penetration. His colleagues say that the Soviets could not do the damage that Angelton did. If the Western services have penetrated the Russian state system at a high level and their recruitment campaigns trigger paranoia and start a purge process, the power circles around Putin could split in the process.

Given the power dynamics in Russia, Putin can only be eliminated by a silovik figure as powerful as him. Let me explain what this means with an example. Suleyman Demirel, who had been President of Turkey, was on a visit to Iraq and had a meeting with President Hassan al-Bakr. Saddam Hussein was in the Iraqi delegation during the meeting with a cigar in his hand, watching from the back table. At the end of the meeting, diplomats asked Suleyman Demirel whether a change of power in Iraq was possible. Demirel replied that if there was to be a change of power in Iraq, you would need to find a man who could smoke a cigar behind the president at an official meeting.

It is hard to know who is the man behind Putin who can smoke a cigar. But the Patrushev family seems to have this power. Penetrating the Russian state system and creating a rift in the power circles may not be enough to bring about a change of power. It will also require terrorist attacks and an economic crisis to foment a sense of rebellion among the Russian people. If this sense of rebellion leads to an uprising, and the security forces are unable to suppress these events, the cigar-smoking man behind Putin could take the initiative and ask him to leave power. In order to prevent this scenario from playing out, the Russian security services should not cut off the ears of terrorists but should coolly and meticulously assess the threat they face, the motivations and modus operandi of the organization, and prevent the flame from growing. Which of these possibilities will materialize depends on who wins the US elections and whether Putin is willing to compromise on Ukraine. It should not be forgotten that terrorism is a tool used by Western intelligence agencies to trigger a spiral of reaction and create new political equations.

Dr. Hasan Mesut Önder

He graduated from Çanakkale 18 Mart University, Department of Economics, and received his bachelor’s degree. He received his Master’s degree in the Department of International Relations with a thesis titled “Intelligence Foreign Policy Relationship: The Panopticon Model and Israel” in the Department of International Relations at the same university. He received his Ph.D. title with his thesis, “Use of Intelligence in the Securitization Process: The Case of the US Invasion of Iraq” in the Department of International Relations. He continues his studies on intelligence theory, security theories, Middle East politics, and Israeli intelligence.