Weltschau

When dealing with a surprise attack with national and international implications, a process analysis of how the event unfolded is necessary. Prior to October 7, Israeli society met the Netanyahu government’s steps towards judicial reform with serious resistance. During the demonstrations that lasted for weeks, it was reflected in the Israeli media that all layers of society, as well as the intelligence and security bureaucracy, opposed this step of the Netanyahu government. According to the information reflected in the Israeli media, it was stated that the US administration also supported the demonstrators. This situation shows that the relationship between the government and the intelligence bureaucracy, which constitute the Israeli state mechanism, is not functioning properly. In this respect, the first point to be considered in a major security incident faced by a state is the relationship between the government and the security and intelligence bureaucracy. When a human body with cancer is examined from the outside, if the cancer has not reached an advanced stage, it is possible to see it as a whole body that fulfills certain functions. However, a detailed analysis reveals that some organs are unable to fulfill their basic functions and that the body is slowly destroying itself.

Before and after October 7, the majority of Israel’s intelligence community was “negatively politicized”

Analytical politicization of intelligence can be defined as the intelligence community producing intelligence that supports the political position of political decision-makers, while negative politicization can be defined as leaks that undermine the legitimacy of the political position of political decision-makers and attempts to reduce public support for the political preferences of governments. Positive politicization, on the other hand, can be considered as intelligence organizations conducting covert operations in line with the political preferences of political decision-makers and using intelligence services for diplomatic purposes. While one aspect of negative politicization involves analytical processes, another aspect involves the operational dimension. It is possible that a person like Netanyahu, who has been Prime Minister of Israel for a long period of time, could create his own teams of supporters within the Israeli intelligence community.

Intelligence professionals assessing the Israeli intelligence community have noted that the personnel structure of the Israeli intelligence community has evolved from a secular, non-political profile to a more politically engaged and religious personnel structure. This situation shows that one group within the Israeli intelligence community prioritizes supporting Netanyahu’s political preferences and says what the government wants to hear, while the other group tries to erode the legitimacy of Netanyahu’s leadership’s political preferences. In this context, the Israeli intelligence community is deeply divided into anti-Netanyahu and pro-Netanyahu factions. It was in this deep polarization that the October 7 attacks by Hamas took place. After the October 7 attacks, almost all journalists and academics around the world have stated that it was an intelligence failure. However, it can be said that the most important reason for the October 7 attack was the deep polarization within the Israeli state apparatus.

Israel’s Intelligence Community’s Analytical Skills Blunted Due to Politicization

It can be said that there are two blocs within the Israeli intelligence community, for and against Netanyahu’s policies. Former Mossad chief Efrahim Halevy argues that Netanyahu is detached from reality, while Tamir Pardo argues that the Netanyahu government is building an apartheid regime. Pardo argues that Israel’s expansion policy poses a national security threat and that if it continues, Israel will become an Arab-majority state and Israel will lose its status as a Jewish state. When the Israeli intelligence community is so politically polarized, it is natural that it loses its ability to warn. When an intelligence organization starts to assess threats from a political perspective, it becomes unable to produce intelligence.

The October 7 attack gives Netanyahu a lifeline and the intelligence community an opportunity to get rid of Netanyahu

It can be said that the Israeli intelligence community is led by great minds, its personnel structure is well-equipped and technologically advanced compared to many intelligence organizations. Israel itself states that the technical capabilities of the Israeli intelligence community are such that they are capable of detecting all kinds of threats. So, what happened? Why was this attack not detected? The intelligence failure is not only due to the failure to collect enough information of sufficient quality but also due to the failure to analyze the information correctly. According to reports in the American press, Israeli intelligence obtained information about Hamas’ attack on October 7 from a 40-page plan called the Jericho Wall. It is stated that this information contains details on how Hamas will act and the attack it will carry out. However, despite this information, it is claimed that it was ignored on the grounds that Hamas was deterred and had neither the capacity nor the intention to carry out such an attack. This is a typical case of cognitive dissonance. Intelligence analysts tend to ignore information that contradicts this political position in order to conform to the political preferences of political decision-makers.

By focusing on pleasing political decision-makers, intelligence agencies lose touch with reality and conduct their collection activities in a biased manner, seeking to gather information that confirms their biases.  The idea that Hamas is interested in governing Gaza and does not have the capacity and intentions to carry out such an attack is nothing more than Netanyahu’s behavior to validate the symbiotic relationship he has somehow established with Hamas. Because the factions within the intelligence community that supported Netayahu were politicized, they fell into the trap of cognitive dissonance and failed to recognize the warning signs.  It was also claimed that junior officers, who were described as scouts in the Israeli border areas, passed on information about Hamas activity to their superiors, but this information was ignored. So who are those who ignored this information? There can be only one explanation for ignoring such concrete activity. The Israeli government may have withheld information about the October 7 attack from the factions that wanted to get rid of the Netanyahu government in a great national shock.

In democratic countries, preventive actions on certain issues that pose a risk are problematic in terms of the balance between freedom and security. However, a state like Israel, which does not pay attention to the sensitivity of international public opinion, could have prevented the October 7 action with pre-emptive strikes even at the slightest suspicion.  Why this was not done is a big question mark. According to the Israeli press, some of the civilian deaths at the music festival near the Gaza Strip were allegedly caused by fire from Israeli military helicopters. 

This incident cannot be explained by the incompetence of Israeli soldiers. However, it is highly likely that the anti-Netanyahu faction, which ignored the report of the scouts and the Jericho Wall, saw the October 7 attack as an opportunity to liquidate Netanyahu. In the short term, however, Netanyahu may be thinking that he can preserve his power by deflecting the domestic backlash against him before and after October 7 and by deepening the massacre and even turning it into a regional war. The anti-Netanyahu intelligence and security elites, on the other hand, seem to be working with the American administration to eliminate the Netanyahu government. The American administration is providing support to increase its control over Netenyahu. So this can be read as a strategy of control through support. But the relationship between the liberal Zionists in America and the right-wing Likud party was already somewhat deeply damaged.

The alliance between the evangelicals and Likud is the most important reason for Netanyahu to keep his seat. However, in the medium term, the anti-Israel atmosphere in the international community suggests that Netanyahu will have a hard time keeping his seat. When politics enters an intelligence organization, it becomes unable to perform its primary function. As a result, the world is faced with a prime minister who does not hesitate to kill innocent children in order to preserve his power… Israel has to get rid of the Netanyahu problem with its own internal dynamics. Otherwise, this process will turn into a Muslim-Jewish polarization, and such a conflict will disrupt global and regional balances. The rational actors in Israel must rid the world of the Netanyahu problem. Sooner or later, Netanyahu will be tried as a war criminal.

Note: The day after October 7, I wrote an article for the Turkish national daily Karar, in which I stated that Israeli intelligence was preparing to eliminate Netanyahu in order to pave the way for a two-state solution. ( https://www.karar.com/gorusler/mossad-iki-devletli-cozum-icin-netenyahuyu-tasfiye-etmeye-mi-hazirlaniyor-1794438) This article is an expanded version of these views, supported by new findings.

Dr. Hasan Mesut Önder

He graduated from Çanakkale 18 Mart University, Department of Economics, and received his bachelor’s degree. He received his Master’s degree in the Department of International Relations with a thesis titled “Intelligence Foreign Policy Relationship: The Panopticon Model and Israel” in the Department of International Relations at the same university. He received his Ph.D. title with his thesis, “Use of Intelligence in the Securitization Process: The Case of the US Invasion of Iraq,” in the Department of International Relations. He continues his studies on intelligence theory, security theories, Middle East politics, and Israeli intelligence.